Next month, atmospheric CO₂ is projected to reach 429.6 parts per million (ppm), a level not seen in over two million years. This number may seem abstract for many, but it is a stark warning: the world is moving further away from the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target, and the consequences are already being felt across South America. This is not just a scientific milestone but a signal that our region's systems supporting life, agriculture, and culture are under unprecedented stress.
The annual average for 2025 is expected to be 426.6 ppm, a 2.26 ppm increase from 2024. This follows a record-breaking 3.58 ppm jump in 2024 – the largest since modern measurements began in 1958. To put this in perspective, CO₂ levels have soared 52% since the pre-industrial era (280 ppm in 1850). Each additional ppm traps enough heat to disrupt weather patterns, intensify droughts, and threaten food security for millions.
These numbers are not just statistics for climate scientists; they translate into more intense heatwaves, unpredictable rainfall, and more significant risks for everyone from urban families to rural farmers. The relentless rise in CO₂ is a reminder that the climate crisis is not a distant threat, but a present reality that is accelerating.
Why Is CO₂ Rising So Fast?
Fossil Fuels: The Relentless Engine
Despite the global push for renewables, fossil fuels remain the backbone of South America's energy and export economies. Oil, gas, and coal still power 82% of the global economy, and in 2024, global fossil fuel emissions hit 41.6 billion tons, up from 40.6 billion in 2023. In practice, this means that every time a new well is drilled, or a coal plant is kept online, we make choices that will shape the climate for generations. The economic pressures are real – jobs, government revenue, and development are often tied to these industries. Yet, the cost of inaction is mounting: more frequent blackouts, water shortages, and health crises linked to pollution and heat.
Forests Are Struggling to Keep Up
South America's forests, especially the vast tropical and subtropical regions, have long acted as a buffer, absorbing CO₂ and stabilizing the climate. But this natural defense is weakening. The 2023–2024 El Niño reduced the Amazon's carbon absorption by 30%, and in some areas, deforestation and fire have turned forests from carbon sinks into carbon sources. Wildfires in 2023 alone released 7.3 billion tons of CO₂ globally, with the Amazon and Cerrado biomes contributing significantly. In Brazil, fires destroyed 1.5 million hectares of forest in 2024, erasing habitats and polluting air quality for millions. When forests are lost, so are livelihoods, traditional knowledge, and the resilience of entire communities.
A Broken Climate Feedback Loop
The climate system is interconnected in ways that are often invisible until they break down. As temperatures rise, permafrost in the Andes and Patagonia begins to thaw, releasing methane, a greenhouse gas 80 times more potent than CO₂ over 20 years. Meanwhile, the acidification of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans is undermining fisheries that millions depend on for food and income. These feedback loops, once theoretical, are now accelerating the crisis beyond worst-case scenarios.
South America on the Front Lines
Extreme Weather's Human Cost
The impacts of rising CO₂ are not confined to graphs and models. They are playing out in real time. In 2024, temperatures in Argentina's Chaco region hit 48°C, collapsing power grids and causing deadly heat strokes among vulnerable populations. Colombia faced record rainfall, displacing 200,000 people and wiping out crops critical to local economies. The World Meteorological Organization warns that 2025 will likely rank among the top three hottest years on record, with the Amazon basin facing intensified droughts. Indigenous communities, such as the Yanomami in Brazil, report unprecedented disruptions to ancestral farming cycles, threatening food security.
Biodiversity Under Siege
South America is home to some of the world's richest biodiversity, but this natural wealth is under threat. The Andes have lost 42% of their glacial ice since 1990, jeopardizing water supplies for 40 million people. In the Amazon, species like the giant otter and harpy eagle face extinction as habitats shrink. Scientists estimate that 10% of Amazonian species could vanish by 2030 if deforestation continues unchecked. For Indigenous and rural communities, these losses are deeply personal, eroding cultural identity and traditional ways of life. Protecting biodiversity is about saving wildlife and safeguarding the foundations of human well-being.
The 1.5°C Myth: Why Current Policies Are Failing
There is a growing gap between climate pledges and real-world action. The IPCC estimates stabilizing CO₂ levels requires limiting annual increases to 1.8 ppm by 2030. Yet 2025's 2.26 ppm rise proves we're moving in the wrong direction. Even a shift to La Niña, a climate pattern that enhances carbon sink capacity, won't save us.
As Prof. Richard Betts of the Met Office warns: “Halting global warming requires a complete stop in the buildup of greenhouse gases followed by a reduction.” While many South American countries have set ambitious targets, implementation often lags due to political, economic, and social challenges. Delays, underfunding, and competing priorities mean emissions continue to rise, and the window for meaningful action is closing.
Lesser-Known Solutions with Outsized Impact
Empower Indigenous Stewardship
One of the most effective ways to protect forests and store carbon is to support Indigenous land rights. Indigenous territories in the Amazon store 34% of the region's carbon and have deforestation rates three times lower than non-Indigenous lands. The Xingu Indigenous Park in Brazil, managed by 16 tribes, has preserved 2.8 million hectares of rainforest despite encroaching agribusiness. Recognizing and strengthening Indigenous stewardship is not just a matter of justice but a practical, proven climate solution.
Rewild Degraded Lands
Restoring degraded forests and grasslands offers a powerful way to draw down CO₂ and rebuild ecosystem resilience. If restored, South America's degraded forests and grasslands could sequester 6.5 billion tons of CO₂ annually, equivalent to eliminating all U.S. emissions. Projects that reintroduce native species, restore wetlands, and reconnect fragmented habitats can transform landscapes and economies. These efforts also create jobs, support tourism, and provide new opportunities for rural communities.
Tackle Methane Leaks
While CO₂ gets the most attention, methane is a major driver of near-term warming. Methane from oil/gas operations and cattle accounts for 30% of global warming. In Argentina and worldwide, advances in satellite monitoring and sensor technology are making it possible to quickly detect and fix methane leaks from oil, gas, and agricultural operations. Recent policy shifts are also encouraging companies to adopt more rigorous maintenance and reporting standards, while international initiatives are fostering collaboration to share best practices and accelerate reductions. By combining innovation, regulation, and industry accountability, Argentina can significantly curb methane emissions, delivering rapid climate benefits and buying valuable time as the world works to bring down CO2 levels.
Beyond "Net-Zero" Buzzwords
The record CO₂ levels projected for 2025 are a wake-up call. South America has a unique opportunity to lead by example, leveraging its natural resources, cultural diversity, and innovative spirit. This means moving beyond incremental change and embracing bold policies: phasing out fossil fuel expansion, scaling up debt-for-nature swaps, and demanding climate justice from the world's largest emitters. It also means investing in education, research, and community-led solutions that can be adapted and scaled across the continent.
Carlos Montero, Arbol y Tierra's founder, believed that the fight for climate stability transcends borders and politics. As CO₂ levels soar, his vision is more relevant than ever. Our choices today, about energy, land, and community, will determine the future of South America and the planet. The solutions are within reach, but they require courage, collaboration, and a willingness to act before it is too late.
Arbol y Tierra is committed to joining this movement and working with partners across the region to turn knowledge into action. The time to act is now.